Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability by Paul Tempest (auth.), Hugo McPherson, W. Duncan Wood, Derek

By Paul Tempest (auth.), Hugo McPherson, W. Duncan Wood, Derek M. Robinson (eds.)

Emerging Threats to strength safety and balance January 23 to January 25, 2004, Windsor fort, united kingdom This two-day NATO-sponsored workshop used to be organised via the Windsor power workforce and MEC overseas Ltd with aid from NATO’s technological know-how Committee. The workshop used to be designed to advertise a public-private region alternate on how most sensible to handle concerns coming up in power safeguard at a time of turning out to be uncertainty. particularly, it sought to evaluate rising threats to strength safety and balance and speak about new safety recommendations to guard international strength offers from local instability and terrorism. The structure concerned a wide-ranging foreign staff of poli- formers and advisers from NATO, accomplice and different nations, in a distinct discussion board for in depth professional dialogue. historical past The foreign group is more and more aware of the necessity to improve new power safety suggestions with the intention to guard worldwide power provides from neighborhood instability and terrorism. strength safety is a crucial point in foreign balance. besides the fact that, a number of energy-related fiscal, technical, and military/political elements pose critical demanding situations to the overseas community’s pursuit of power defense and balance: the worldwide economic climate is predicted to remain mostly depending on oil and gasoline for the subsequent twenty to thirty years. present degrees of construction might have to be doubled during this interval, with many of the increment coming from the Gulf States who keep watch over sixty six% of worldwide oil reserves and forty% of worldwide typical fuel reserves. There are forecasts of vital potential shortfalls.

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Over the last 30 years, the world’s energy supply has become more diverse. The shares of oil and coal, the dominant fuels in 1972, have fallen while the shares of gas, nuclear and hydro-electricity have grown – as has the share of renewable energy. This trend is expected to continue, albeit more slowly, because of a slowdown in the rate of nuclear/hydro expansion. At the same time that oil’s share of world energy consumption has fallen, oil consumption has become more concentrated in the transport sector, where 21 there are fewer opportunities for substitution than in industry, power and residential/commercial use.

Import dependence Expressed as net fossil fuel imports as a percentage of primary energy use, import dependence has increased in the US and China over the last thirty years but decreased in Europe and Japan. The fall in European import dependence occurred during the 1970s and reflected the development of North Sea oil and gas supplies and the rapid development of nuclear power. The fall in Japanese import dependence has been very modest and reflects largely the growing penetration of nuclear power: domestic hydrocarbon production has always been quite small and has been declining over the last 30 years as a whole.

There is also a possibility that diminishing spare production capacity could explain some of this growth in volatility. Policy levers & trade-offs Governments turn to a number of policy levers in an attempt to enhance energy security. Tax breaks or import tariffs may be employed to promote self-sufficiency. “National champions” may be encouraged to acquire equity production overseas, as the current Chinese thrust to acquire overseas equity. g. the 60% limit on Spanish gas imports designed to prevent over dependence on Algerian gas imports.

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