Formal Methods in Policy Formulation: The Application of by Derek W. Bunn, Howard Thomas (auth.), Derek W. Bunn, Howard

By Derek W. Bunn, Howard Thomas (auth.), Derek W. Bunn, Howard Thomas (eds.)

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Additional resources for Formal Methods in Policy Formulation: The Application of Bayesian Decision Analysis to the Screening, Structuring, Optimisation and Implementation of Policies within Complex Organisations

Sample text

One type of Irreversibility, although not the type usually dealt with, is that of foreclosing options that might later have been open. Krutilla et al. (1972) discusses this, as does Walters (1975). Option foreclosure means that impacts generated by adecision will make future decision alternatives impossible. For example, siting a nuclear waste storage facil ity will mean that the site is forever unusable for other purposes. The degree of desirabil ity of foreclosing future options depends on the probabil ity that one would at some later time elect to use them, the time when that might occur, and the benefit that would have been derived from their use.

J then the set of feasible aYternatives is composed of all possible pairs (s. ) th~t remain afterscreening. As Impacts depend on both the site and techologylselected, "siting" decisions must involve both variables. , cost, environmental degradations, and social disruption. Since objectives are usually vague and qual itative concepts, a set of indices is chosen for measuring levels of impact against objectives. We will call these attributes. • xnl. Decisions are made on the basis of predicted impacts measured on the set of attributes associated with important objectives.

In a hierarchy of declsion which Is not rigid, thls quest ion assumes conslderabte importance. Ostensibly, we have planning authorltles whose business it Is to evaluate proposals for regional devetopment and to arrlve at preferred scenarios. evaluated for their compatibil ity with these preferred plans. g. large transportation facil ities) generates undeslred development impacts. In the reverse situation, a facil ity inducing larger local employment, and thus accelerated development, would be deemed more desirable than one that does not.

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